How To Estimate Risk

Data from the Framingham Heart Study are often used as the basis for calculating global CV risk. The Framingham Score provides an estimate of an individual’s 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease.¹ While the Framingham Score is highly applicable to populations in the USA, Australia, and New Zealand,² data suggest that the score requires recalibration for use in European and Asian populations who may be at lower risk of heart disease than the population studied in the Framingham Heart Study.^3,4

Consequently, the European Society of Cardiology developed the Systemic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk estimation charts as a means to more accurately measure the 10-year CVD risk in European populations.^3,5 SCORE, and its electronic counterpart HeartScore, consist of two separate risk estimation charts for use in countries with low- and high-risk populations.

These CV risk algorithms are limited by the fact that they only calculate an individual’s risk over a short period of time (10 years) and they could consequently underestimate risk in a younger individual. They also do not take all CV risk factors into account and factors such as diabetes and obesity, low or high high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, physical activity and diet are not included. Thus CV risk calculations, while very useful in clinical practice, should be used in conjunction with the physician’s judgment to individualize therapeutic strategies to lower global CV risk.

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